Sluggish economy, unemployment and crackdown on opposition seen as concerns
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi carries heavy support for a third term ahead of elections expected in spring 2024, but slowing economic growth, rising joblessness and accusations of heavy-handed political tactics give rivals an opening.
Modi, representing the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, has been in power since 2014.
“Small drops of water, when they come together, fill up a pot. Similarly, knowledge, good deeds or wealth add up gradually,” Modi said in a video message at a World Bank climate change event on Saturday.
He came across as a leader for the Global South, seeming to say that developed countries should cooperate to solve environmental problems without rushing emerging nations.
India chairs the Group of 20 leading rich and developing nations this year, and while Modi charms on the diplomatic stage, he is busy consolidating power domestically.
The BJP-led ruling coalition retained power in elections last month for the legislatures of three northeastern states, a potential bellwether for the general election.
The latest poll released by magazine India Today shows 52% of voters supporting Modi for a third term. If choosing a successor, 26% want Union Home Minister Amit Shah and 25% favor Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, also BJP members.
Modi’s administration enjoys a 67% approval rating, and the percentage of people who disapprove of his BJP-led government has dropped significantly from last year.
But Modi has areas of concern. These include economic growth, even though India’s real gross domestic product rose by 6.7% in 2022, surpassing China’s growth rate.
India is “dangerously close” to the so-called Hindu rate of growth, warns Raghuram Rajan, former governor of the Reserve Bank of India. The term refers to India’s low growth rate from the 1950s to the 1980s, which averaged around 4%.
Rajan told local media he saw no indication that India could expect high growth, citing three points: subdued investment in the private sector, interest rate hikes by the central bank and projections of a global economic slowdown.
The country also faces high unemployment, with the overall rate in March standing at 7.8%, up 0.35 percentage points from February, Indian research firm CMIE reports.
Over 40% of India’s population is 25 or younger. While the government focuses on investing in infrastructure, investment in the manufacturing sector has not produced the expected results.
The IT sector, a pillar of the country’s economy, and startup creation alone cannot absorb these young workers, said to increase by 12 million people each year.
India has cracked down in recent years on fraudulent call centers whose workers scam people overseas by pretending to be employees of tax offices, banks or insurance companies. Some college graduates unable to find employment have joined these call centers, lured by advertisements claiming high income, according to local media.
These types of scams from India are said to have caused losses of more than $10 billion last year in the U.S. alone. It is a problem unique to India, where highly educated English speakers can be hired for low wages.
Modi’s government also faces accusations that it seeks to crush democratic dissent. Rahul Gandhi, a former leader of the opposition Indian National Congress party, was sentenced to two years in prison in late March, convicted in a defamation case involving a speech about Modi.
Gandhi, who was stripped of his parliamentary seat, immediately appealed, but cannot run in the general election unless the ruling is overturned.
A scion of the Gandhi family, he is the great-grandson of India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, and was a face of the election alongside Modi.
Gandhi’s conviction has sparked a growing view that Modi’s government opened the door for unity among India’s opposition parties.
“If you’re talking about yourself as a democracy, as the mother of democracy then your judiciary, parliament, investigative agencies, everything, these are pillars of your state structure,” said Navnita Chadha Behera, professor of political science at the University of Delhi.
“For democracy to work, we need a very, very robust opposition, which is not there right now,” she said. “Something needs to shift here. Whether it will happen or not, I can’t predict. It is an existential battle in my opinion.”
Source: asia.nikkei