INDIA looks forward to 2023 with confidence and hope. The country has weathered the economic crisis caused by the Covid pandemic and the Ukraine war better than many others. India’s anticipated growth rate for early 2023 is expected to be aroun
7 per cent. This puts it among the leading economies in the world.
With the focus on sustainable development goals (SDGs), climate, solar energy and the like, India has taken centre stage on issues related to climate and it is no more an outlier. India’s role at the COP27 and G20 summit would need to be buttressed and continued in the year ahead.
Similarly, India’s pursuit of free trade agreements (FTAs) with Australia, the UAE, GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries, Israel and hopefully soon with the UK and EU will place it on a platform of international trade where it has not been before. Truly, its biggest trading partners still remain outside the FTA ambit. The incremental increase puts India in a better position.
Given this background, India’s G20 chairmanship in 2023 will prove to be a game changer for the nation’s image-building, its influence and its achievements globally. An ambitious agenda, a diversity of meetings crisscrossing the country and projecting India as a vibrant nation are clearly laid out. It appears that the Ukraine crisis will ebb, global economy will somewhat recover and closer interaction among countries, both developed and developing, will emerge. This will help India’s aims for the G20.
The G20 presidency will be an opportunity for India to take the world beyond the ideas of war and competition to collaboration and collective action, which the UN and the big powers have failed to achieve. This requires the collaboration of the big countries, particularly the US, China and Russia. India would need not only its influence, but also a stroke of luck that the big powers adjust to each other and give the world breathing space. India’s perceived role as a spokesperson for the Global South will see several new initiatives. Some of these require efforts by other countries, notably Indonesia, Brazil and South Africa.
Collective initiatives by them will be useful, but coordination among them is imperative. While India pursues this objective, another area where it will have to work harder is trilateral cooperation with other countries and regional bodies to achieve the SDGs. India’s trilateral cooperation with Germany is already bearing fruit in Africa and Latin America with projects in Malawi, Ghana, Cameroon and Peru underway. A joint India-UK fund for impact investing in Africa has been established. Discussions have taken place with Japan, the EU, France, the US and others and these need to be brought to fruition through actual projects to achieve the SDGs in different areas. This will remain a major challenge for India — to translate the discussions among its various partners to real action.
India would need closer cooperation with its neighbours, some of which are undergoing uneven political and economic developments. The unsettled conditions in Myanmar, the evolution of a new government in Nepal and the continuing uncertainty in Sri Lanka are the sore points. India has to continue to help them without sounding too much like a big brother. This tightrope walk is always a challenge.
Bangladesh goes to the polls in December 2023. Considering our good relationship with the neighbour, we have to assess what it means to us if the Awami League rule led by Sheikh Hasina continues. Uncertainty in Afghanistan will remain challenging. It’s also an opportunity to work more closely with Central Asian countries since India would be chairing the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) for the year and will have a balancing act to play. The SCO may also lead to further friction with its rival members — China and Pakistan. China is consolidating its political power, though facing internal ramifications of its actions. Both countries would look to embarrass India during its G20 chairmanship. They would look to step up confrontation with India in the region and beyond.
India would have to firmly deal with intrusions and terrorism and at the same time try to keep a diplomatic even keel so that China remains engaged with the inclusive G20 process and neither seeks to dominate it nor be absent from it. With Pakistan, India needs to keep a lid on its relations so that its focus from the G20 is not deviated. It is likely that both China and Pakistan will try to upset India and, therefore, both need to be dealt with resolute circumspection.
As part of India’s outreach to the Global South, the ASEAN summit in November marked its 30th anniversary. The next summit will be held in November 2023, after the G20. The India-Africa Summit has been due since 2020 and should be held soon. Similarly, the Forum for India-Pacific Islands Cooperation is awaited since 2020. Given the Chinese intrusions in the South Pacific, this is an opportunity for India to collaborate more with its Quad partners in the region. The India-Caribbean Community Summit (CARICOM), last held in 2019, had a ministerial meeting in 2022.This model of ministerial meetings can be used to reactivate other pending engagements. In the past, these summits have been occasions for announcements of large grants and loans. Due to debt stress, the loans are not welcome anymore. New ways of engaging them have to be found. These could be trilateral cooperation as in the case of Africa, or through PPP-led projects, where private investment backed by governmental grants and supported by a multitude of partners could be the main method of engaging the Pacific Islands and CARICOM. The India-Brazil-South Africa trilateral also needs to be revitalised.
There’s an opportunity for India to evolve new types of collaboration with other developing countries, both through the G20 and its bilateral summit processes. This will hold it in good stead as it progresses towards contesting for the Security Council term in 2028-29.
Source : TribuneIndia