AUKUS Unveils Plans for Nuclear Submarines and Tomahawk Missiles
AUKUS Leaders Announce Plan for Nuclear-Powered Australian Submarine Force
President Biden met with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak at Naval Base Point Loma in San Diego in March to announce accelerated plans to provide Australia with U.S. Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines. Australia is committed to remaining a non-nuclear weapons state, and President Biden has provided assurances that these new submarines will be armed only with conventional weapons. The first of the new submarines will be constructed in the U.K. for delivery in the late 2030s. Australia plans to deliver the first Australian-built nuclear-powered submarines in the early 2040s, once it has created its own domestic industrial capacity. The initial phases of the plan are already underway and involve training Australian submariners at the U.S. Navy’s Nuclear Power School and embedding Australian submariners in U.S. submarine crews. The U.S. and the U.K. will also increase visits of their submarines to ports in Australia. The collaboration will require the U.S. to share sensitive technology with its AUKUS partners and will require all three nations to train and expand their industrial base. The agreement’s success will depend on maintaining political support for the AUKUS plan in Canberra, London, and Washington over the next three to four decades.
Nuclear submarines “can stay underwater longer and travel farther than conventional submarines without surfacing,” making them more capable of stealth and concealment. Thus, they are a “substantial upgrade” over Australia’s current small, diesel-powered submarine force. This investment in the expansion and upgrade of Australia’s submarine capability is oriented toward countering China’s military buildup and increasing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific. Retired Adm. Harry Harris, the former commander of U.S. Pacific Command (now U.S. Indo-Pacific Command), believes that the technology-sharing agreement will serve to deter China from “acting on the global stage in negative and nefarious ways,” including attempting an invasion of Taiwan.
Critics of the AUKUS plan and other similar Indo-Pacific security arrangements are concerned with their potential to contribute to an “Asia-Pacific arms race.” Others fear that AUKUS will jeopardize Australia’s recent progress in mending its deteriorated relationship with China. In response, some commentators claim that agreements like the AUKUS plan do not upset a stable regional balance but, rather, constitute “collective and tailored responses” to an already-deteriorating regional balance caused predominantly by China’s significant investment in military power projection.
U.S. to Sell $895 million in Tomahawk Missiles to Australia
Days after President Biden and Prime Ministers Sunak and Albanese announced the plan for expanding Australia’s submarine force, Congress was notified of a potential $895 million sale of Raytheon Tomahawk missiles to Australia. According to the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, the proposed sale “will support the foreign policy and national security objectives of the United States.” Australia first expressed interest in purchasing Tomahawk missiles in September 2021, when the AUKUS partnership was unveiled.
U.K. Joins Australia as a Member of Indo-Pacific Free Trade Bloc
Following two years of negotiations, the U.K. will become the newest member of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), an Indo-Pacific free trade bloc. The U.K. will become the CPTPP’s 12th member, joining fellow AUKUS member Australia. The U.K.’s impending membership represents the first expansion of the bloc since it went into effect in 2018. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, it is regarded as a significant victory for the U.K.’s post-Brexit government, with potential to “mitigate Brexit losses and guarantee future economic growth.” The U.S. is not a CPTPP participant.
USS Milius Conducts FONOP Near Disputed Islands
On March 23, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) claimed to have expelled the U.S. Navy guided missile destroyer USS Milius (DDG-69) from Chinese territorial waters after it “trespassed” in vicinity of the disputed Paracel Islands (Chinese: Xisha Qundao; Vietnamese: Quần đảo Hoàng Sa). PLA Southern Theater Command spokesperson Senior Col. Tian Junli said in a press release that the USS Milius “made an illegal intrusion into Chinese territorial waters off the Xisha Islands, sabotaging the peace and stability in the South China Sea.” PLA naval and air forces reportedly “tracked, monitored and warned away” the U.S. warship. Chinese military commentator Song Zhongping alleged that the U.S. has been “ramping up provocations on China’s doorstep … to deny China [] its sovereignty and jurisdiction” over the disputed islands. The U.S. Navy 7th Fleet, however, denied Beijing’s claims that the USS Milius was driven off by the PLA.
A day after China claimed that it had expelled the USS Milius, the ship returned and conducted a freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) through the same waters to challenge China’s claims. According to U.S. Navy 7th Fleet spokesperson Lt. j.g. Luka Bakic, the USS Milius “asserted navigational rights and freedoms in the South China Sea near the Paracel Islands, consistent with international law” in order to challenge restrictions imposed on innocent passage by China, Taiwan, and Vietnam and to challenge China’s claim to straight baselines enclosing the Paracels, which do not conform to the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) Article 7.
In a characteristic response to U.S. Navy FONOPs conducted in the vicinity of its disputed maritime claims, China’s Ministry of National Defense claimed that the USS Milius’s presence “seriously violated China’s sovereignty and security, severely breached international laws, and is more ironclad evidence of the U.S. pursuing navigation hegemony and militarizing the South China Sea.” Defense ministry spokesperson Tan Kefei requested that the U.S. “immediately stop such actions of provocation, otherwise it will bear the serious consequences of unexpected incidents.” Bakic stated that the FONOP reflects the U.S.’s “commitment to uphold freedom of navigation and lawful uses of the sea for all nations.” He added that the U.S. “will continue to fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows.”
Philippines Strengthens Ties With U.S., Protests China’s Actions in South China Sea
U.S. and Philippines Announce New Sites to Host U.S. Troops
In February, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced a U.S.-Philippines agreement, giving the U.S. military access to four more locations within the Southeast Asian nation as part of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA). On April 3, the Philippines publicly disclosed the four EDCA locations that will host U.S. troops: Naval Base Camilo Osias in Santa Ana, Cagayan; Lal-lo Airport in Lal-lo, Cagayan; Camp Melchor Dela Cruz in Gamu, Isabela; and Balabac Island in Palawan. Philippine Department of National Defense spokesperson Arsenio Andolong stated that the new sites will not be U.S. military bases but are intended for logistical purposes. China strongly opposed the increased U.S. military presence in closed-door talks with Philippine officials last month. According to a Philippine official who attended the talks and spoke to the Associated Press on condition of anonymity, the Philippine diplomats responded to their Chinese counterparts that the decision to allow increased U.S. presence was “in their national interest” and would help the Philippines respond to natural disasters. Despite the assurance that the enhanced cooperation “was not aimed at China,” the Chinese Embassy in the Philippines asserted that “it is plain and simple that those moves are part of the U.S. efforts to encircle and contain China,” which will “harm Philippine national interests and endanger regional peace and stability.”
Philippines Protests Ships Loitering in the Territorial Sea
According to the Philippine Coast Guard, a Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) warship, a China Coast Guard ship, and 42 maritime militia ships operated within the 12 nautical mile territorial sea around Thitu Island (Filipino: Pag-asa Island; Chinese: Zhongye Dao; Taiwanese: Zhongye Qunjiao; Vietnamese: Đảo Thị Tứ) in the Spratly Islands (Filipino: Kalayaan Islands; Chinese: Nansha Qundao; Vietnamese: Quần đảo Trường Sa) last month. The PLAN ship and Coast Guard ship were “loitering” within the island’s territorial sea at distances of eight and four nautical miles, respectively. Thitu Island has been occupied by the Philippines since 1974. Although UNCLOS Article 17 awards ships of all states the right to innocent passage through the territorial sea, the behavior of Chinese ships appears inconsistent with Articles 18 and 19, which require such passage to be “continuous and expeditious” and “not prejudicial to the peace, good order or security of the coastal State.” The Philippine Coast Guard released a statement claiming that the “continuing unauthorized presence is clearly inconsistent with the right of innocent passage and a blatant violation of the Philippines’ territorial integrity.”
Filipino diplomats confronted Chinese officials during closed-door talks in late March about China’s behavior in the South China Sea. Both parties acknowledged an agreement between China’s leader Xi Jinping and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to manage territorial disputes “amicably.” The Philippine officials cited several instances of China’s aggressive actions in disputed waters, and China’s diplomats “responded mostly by reiterating Beijing’s claim of sovereignty in most of the South China Sea.”
The Associated Press reports that the Philippines has launched a new strategy of publicizing China’s aggressive actions in the disputed areas. Most recently, the Philippine Coast Guard released video footage of an incident in which a Chinese ship aimed a laser at a Philippine vessel that temporarily blinded some members of its crew. Philippine Coast Guard Commodore Jay Tarriela claims that “the best way to address Chinese ‘gray zone’ activities … is to expose it.” He stated further that the Philippine Coast Guard’s publicizing of China’s aggression “allows like-minded states to express condemnation … which puts Beijing in a spotlight.” Tarriela claims that, by making unedited Coast Guard footage and photographs public, the Philippines “can once again reshape public opinion to weigh things objectively based on facts and not just propaganda.”
New U.S. Embassy to Open in Vanuatu
The U.S. State Department plans to open an embassy in the Pacific Island nation of Vanuatu in order to facilitate bilateral cooperation, development assistance, and efforts to fight climate change. Other embassies are planned in the nations of Kiribati and Tonga. The U.S. recently reopened its long-shuttered embassy in the Solomon Islands after a controversial security pact between China and the Solomon Islands sparked renewed commitment to diplomatic engagement with Pacific Island nations. The move to open new embassies in the Pacific Islands appears to be a step toward the promised diplomatic engagement. The Biden administration released a proposed federal budget last month that, if approved by Congress, would include $7.1 billion in funding for Pacific Islands as part of a strategy to “out-compete China” and strengthen regional partnerships.
Taiwan President Tsai Meets With House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in Los Angeles
On April 5, Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen met with Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and a bipartisan group of lawmakers at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library outside Los Angeles. Taiwan has formal ties with only 13 countries, as many countries have shifted their official recognition to Beijing, which claims that Taiwan belongs to China. White House national security spokesperson John Kirby has asked China not to use Taiwan’s normal stopover in the U.S. as pretext to increase aggression toward Taiwan, stating that Tsai’s visit was “consistent with [the U.S.’s] long unofficial relationship with Taiwan, and it is consistent with the United States one-China policy,” which recognizes the People’s Republic of China as the legitimate government of China. Ahead of Tsai’s meeting with McCarthy, however, Beijing called the meeting a “provocation,” threatened countermeasures, and began live-fire joint force training exercises for its air force, navy, and ground forces. Bonnie Glaser, an expert at the German Marshall Fund, notes that the fact that the meeting took place in California, not Taiwan, should have been a source of relief for Beijing.
By contrast, on March 27, Taiwan’s former president, Ma Ying-jeou, landed in China for a 12-day unofficial visit. This marks the first visit to China by a sitting or former Taiwanese leader since the end of China’s civil war in 1949. In contrast to President Tsai’s party, the Democratic Progressive Party, which is focused on strengthening U.S.-Taiwan ties, Ma’s party, the Chinese Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang, focuses on maintaining friendly relations with Beijing, thereby securing peace for Taiwan. The visit comes on the heels of Taiwan’s March 9 announcement that it would allow more direct flights to China to resume. A spokesperson from Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council said that Taiwan “hope[s] to build on the foundation of these resumed flights to gradually
increase the exchange of goodwill gestures and cooperative interactions by both sides.” Taiwan originally stopped many of these flights due to the coronavirus pandemic.
That said, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense noted in a report that Taiwan will focus this year’s defense spending on developing weapons and preparing equipment in “anticipation of a total blockade of the Taiwan Strait.” The defense ministry explained that such spending would include replenishing artillery, rocket stocks, parts for F-16 fighters, and the purchase of U.S. weapons such as Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System mobile rocket launchers. The report observed that China is “adopting an actual war approach and shifting from training to combat preparation,” noting that China has increased the strength of its “joint combat readiness” against Taiwan.
South Korean President Yoon Meets With Japanese Prime Minister Kishida
On March 16, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol arrived in Japan for a one-on-one visit with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, the first such visit in 12 years. The visit is a signal that the two countries are willing to work together to counter threats from North Korea’s nuclear capacities and China’s growing influence in the region. After the meeting, Kishida said that it was “a big step toward normalizing Japan-Korea relations” and that he hoped to open a “new chapter” in response to the “urgent need to strengthen Japan-Korea relations in this strategic environment.” The two countries have announced plans to restore “shuttle diplomacy” with frequent meetings from here on out.
In response to China’s nearby military activities, Japan deployed Ground Self-Defense Force units to Ishigaki Island near the Senkaku Islands and Taiwan on March 16. According to Japan’s defense ministry, up to 570 Defense Force members will be stationed at a new garrison on Ishigaki Island. The Senkaku Islands are controlled by Japan, though China claims ownership and repeatedly enters Japanese waters around the islands. Japan has also been enhancing its capabilities to launch a response against China by building footholds on the Nansei Islands, which stretch from Kyushu toward Taiwan.
On March 20, Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force commissioned a second Taigei-class diesel-electric attack submarine following its first in March last year. These submarines are powered by a diesel-electric engine and equipped with lithium-ion batteries and have better underwater endurance than other boats. According to Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force, the new submarine, which cost about $548 million to build, is 84 meters long and has a standard displacement of about 3,000 tons. Japan’s defense ministry “has allocated funds for the construction of four more submarines of the class.”
During a brief trip to India in March, Kishida invited Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Japan for the Group of Seven summit in May. Kishida also announced plans for the development of an Indo-Pacific initiative to counter China in the Indo-Pacific region. Kishida noted that, as part of the initiative, Japan would aid emerging economies and provide support and equipment for maritime security. Since the deadly 2020 clash of Indian and Chinese militaries along their undefined border in the Himalayan Ladakh region, the relationship between China and India has deteriorated, leaving room for Japan to strengthen ties with India.
North Korea Takes Tit-for-Tat Measures in Response to Freedom Shield Exercises
During the Freedom Shield exercises, yearly joint exercises between the U.S. and South Korea, North Korea took tit-for-tat measures. As part of the exercises, U.S. and South Korea simulated amphibious assaults on North Korean beach defenses using a U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. This deployment of U.S. strategic assets has angered Pyongyang, with one of its senior foreign ministry officials threatening “an ultimate retribution.” North Korean leader Kim Jong Un stated that the U.S. and South Korea must stop their “reckless” joint military exercises.
Then, on March 12, North Korea took action, firing two strategic cruise missiles from a submarine for the first time. According to North Korea’s state-run news agency, the missiles flew 932 miles over more than two hours and were fired from the 8.24 Yongung, a North Korean submarine. A North Korean report stated that the missiles were capable of carrying nuclear warheads. On March 14, the North fired two short-range ballistic missiles toward the East Sea. The missiles, which flew about 385 miles, were fired from South Hwanghae Province.
On March 16, hours before Yoon and Kishida were set to meet in Tokyo, North Korea fired a long-range missile into waters about 250 kilometers west of Hokkaido’s Oshima-Oshima Island. According to Japan’s defense ministry, the missile flew for 70 minutes and traveled 620 miles with a maximum altitude of 3,728 miles. Yoon called for “further reinforcement” of trilateral security cooperation among the U.S., South Korea, and Japan. The White House stated that the launch “needlessly raises tensions and risks destabilizing the security situation in the region.” Jean Lee, an expert at the Wilson Center, noted that the timing of the missile was reminiscent of “the North Korean missile launched during [the] Trump-Abe summit at Mar-a-Lago” in 2017.
North Korea’s state-run news agency reported that, on March 21, the nation tested an underwater drone to practice launching a nuclear attack for the first time. According to the report, the drone traveled underwater for more than 59 hours and its test warhead had detonated underwater. North Korea has conducted six underground nuclear tests since 2016 and claims to have nuclear warheads nimble enough to be mounted on drones. According to North Korea, the drone’s mission was to “stealthily infiltrate into operational waters and make a super-scale radioactive tsunami through underwater explosion to destroy naval striker groups and major operational ports of the enemy.”
Additionally, according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, North Korea fired “a barrage of cruise missiles” into the East Sea on March 22, with initial analysis from South Korea indicating that the missiles could have been long-range strategic cruise missiles. On March 27, North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles from the Chunghwa area in North Hwanghae Province. This launch occurred a day before the USS Nimitz, a U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, entered Busan Naval Base to stage drills and celebrate the 70th anniversary of the alliance between South Korea and the U.S.
A Draft of the U.N. High Seas Treaty Is Finalized
On March 4, a draft U.N. High Seas Treaty was finalized. The treaty regulates the conduct of governments in “open seas,” which includes parts of the seas not within the jurisdiction of any country. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called the action “a victory for multilateralism and for global efforts to counter the destructive trends facing ocean health, now and for generations to come.” Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro has stated that unreported and unregulated fishing is “a direct attack on [other nations’] sovereignty,” singling out China for carrying out illegal fishing on “an industrial scale.” The treaty applies to ocean areas that lie beyond exclusive economic zones, where countries possess special rights for exploration. Such ocean areas account for roughly two-thirds of the world’s oceans, and, without the treaty, countries have been engaging in large-scale drilling and trawling operations for commercial purposes.
Analysis
At Brookings, Richard McGregor writes that, although Australia’s China policy over the past decade has been “tough” and characterized by willingness to make difficult decisions in face of Chinese retribution, its consistently cautious policy regarding Taiwan has been the exception. On national security issues, however, McGregor writes that Australia has been “steadfast” and that will sooner or later affect Australia’s Taiwan policy. According to McGregor, China’s commitment to taking control of Taiwan, coupled with the U.S.’s increasing reliance on allies for support in the region, means that “Australia won’t have the luxury of keeping its head down on Taiwan indefinitely.”
Also at Brookings, Andrew Yeo writes that the Kishida-Yoon summit should be viewed as “a significant step in an effort to restore bilateral South Korea-Japan relations.” Yeo credits the increase in North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats (including the missile test on the morning of the summit), and concerns regarding China’s challenges to the existing regional order, with bringing about the improved South Korea-Japan relations. He also suggests ways to prevent domestic politics in South Korea and Japan from “torpedoing” the newly improved relationship.
The Heritage Foundation’s Bruce Klingner makes recommendations for how the U.S. and South Korea should respond to North Korea’s growing intercontinental ballistic missile threat. He highlights South Korea’s doubts over the strength of the U.S.’s commitment to deterrence and fears that the U.S. might “abandon its ally.” He suggests that the U.S. should find out what measures would help ease South Korea’s concerns, “lean forward in trust-building efforts,” and create a bilateral mechanism for coordinating on extended deterrence policies. Further, if North Korea continues provocative actions, President Yoon will face increasing pressure and will have to manage domestic expectations as to what is possible.
In an article published in Proceedings, Mike Sweeney argues that submarine warfare will be a major determinant of the long-term military balance between the U.S. and China as aircraft carriers and other surface ships become increasingly vulnerable to anti access/area denial capabilities. He claims that, although China’s naval modernization has been “remarkable in its scope and success,” its submarine and anti-submarine warfare capability has not kept pace. Sweeney argues that the procurement priority of the U.S. Navy over the next two decades, the replacement of Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines, will “make no meaningful contribution to a conventional naval engagement in the western Pacific.” He presents the possibility of diverting part of the planned procurement to Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarines and “SSGN [subsurface guided nuclear submarine] derivatives[,]” which he argues are better suited to a potential conflict in the western Pacific.
And Craig Hooper reports in Forbes that the Marine Corps Warfighting Lab has unveiled a new prototype called the “Stern Landing Vessel” that could “change the game in the South China Sea.” It is designed as a mini-jackup rig with four extendable legs that can reach into the seabed and hold the vessel steady in surf, potentially turning the ship into a platform or temporary pier in shallow waters. Hooper claims that the Philippine Navy could find this platform useful for establishing a “sustainable presence in Philippine atolls throughout the South China Sea,” and it may provide an option for replacing the Philippine ship Sierra Madre, which was intentionally grounded on Second Thomas Shoal in 1999 to defend the Philippines’s claim to the feature. He suggests that the experimental vessels would make “ideal gifts” for the Philippines.
Source : Lawfare